Predicting the Future Distribution of Ara rubrogenys, an Endemic Endangered Bird Species of the Andes, Taking into Account Trophic Interactions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used with climate only to predict animal changes. This approach however neglects the evolution of other components niche, like food resource availability. SDMs also plants. suffers limitations, notably an inability capture fertilizing effect rising CO2 concentration strengthening resilience water stress. Alternatively, process-based dynamic vegetation (DVMs) respond concentration. To test impact plant modelling method model resources animals, we studied a Bolivian macaw, assuming that, under future climate, DVMs produce more conservative results than SDMs. We modelled bird SDM driven by climate. For plant, or DVM. Under climates, macaw showed increased probabilities presence over area and connected range extensions. plants, did not forecast overall response. By contrast, DVM produced increases productivity, occupancy diversity, towards higher altitudes. The offered positive perspectives for optimistic SDMs, initially assumed. Nevertheless, major common threats remain, challenging short-term survival macaw.